England’s story of reaching a World Cup semi-final is quite unique and perhaps, surreal. Their opponents, Croatia, also have a similar fairy-tale to share as both nations get set to lock horns on Wednesday for a place in the final.

This is a whole new stage after a considerable amount of time for these two teams. The Croats previously climbed to the last four stage back in 1998, while the Three Lions accomplished it in 1990.

Managers Gareth Southgate and Zlatko Dalic like to play football in an attractive and structured way. It will be interesting to see which subtle tweaks they formulate in their respective systems to gain an upper hand in the game.

Let us take at the probable lineups of both the teams and also analyse the potential key battles:

Firstly, we will take a look at how Croatia can hurt England in certain situations, then discuss the vice-versa to conclude how exactly the scenarios will be played out.

The above image shows the expected formations with which both teams will play. The different shapes show where the battles will be played throughout the game.

England’s midfield of Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard is predominantly based on pressing high and the latter two making runs across the opposition defence to leave the midfield empty. This can be a dangerous ploy against the likes of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic.

Suppose there is a situation (exhibited in the above image) of Alli and Lingard making runs in the box, and Croatia clear with either of Modric or Rakitic taking up possession. This will leave Henderson alone possibly against three players, there comes the overload. So, Southgate may have to deploy Alli in a slightly deeper role to prevent the Liverpool skipper from getting outnumbered in a counter-attacking situation.

The other situation of profusion for England is in wide areas. Croatian fullbacks move forward at every given opportunity, doubling up with the wingers. This is where wing-backs Ashley Young and Kieran Trippier need support from the wide midfielders tracking back. If not, a quality cross will come in and we all know the proficiency of Mario Mandzukic in the air.

The above image shows how Southgate’s men should lineup if their opponents attack from the wide areas. One thing which is advantageous about the 3-5-2 formation is that the defence doesn’t get stretched easily. In fact, the attacking team needs to create overloads only to have any chance of a goal-scoring penetration.

Now, England in possession are quite structured and methodical as well. They create many angles to trouble the opposition, and this is where the Croatians can be caught cold.

The above image shows us the case where Croatia are moving forward and England have a 2 v 2 on the counter-attack almost all the time. Both Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane have different attributes which will trouble the pairing of Domagoj Vida and Dejan Lovren.

If the ball is cleared, Sterling can use his pace to run behind and Kane can drop off to use the space in between. This is where the Croatian pairing need to understand and communicate as to who will track which player at a given point of time. Dalic will most probably play Brozovic just for this reason, as it will give Modric a chance to move forward and simultaneously release him from defensive duties at all times.

The other threat which the Three Lions can provide is the late runs of Alli and Lingard from midfield which can often remain unmarked.

The image depicts a situation of England attacking from wide areas stretching the opposition defence. This is where Lingard and Alli can be clever and make contrasting runs to create space for each other.

The former can make a run inside to support Sterling and Kane, while the latter can double up with Young in wide areas. With Rakitic and Brozovic constrained in thinking about the two strikers, there is high probability that they miss the inside run of Lingard. Concurrently, Alli teaming up with the left wing-back allows them to fabricate a decent crossing situation.

For their second goal against Sweden, the movement was similar with roles reversed. Back then, it was Trippier who stretched the game with his forward run which created space in between the lines for Lingard. The Manchester United then floated in a lovely clipped cross towards an unmarked run made by Alli. In the end, it was a free header. Croatia need to make sure their wide players track back diligently to avoid these build-ups and stop the crosses.

By the way, there is a threat named Harry Kane who needs some stopping and not many teams have succeeded in doing that. The England captain has scored 6 goals in 4 games thus far and is an all-around threat for Dalic’s men.

The first thing about Kane is that he is not only a box striker, rather likes to make late runs in the box or drop a little deep to create space for midfield dashers. Therefore, the Croatian defence need to convey about the subtle movements which the striker is making.

So, we have discussed various aspects of the game which we probably will see on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how one team nullifies the threat of other and gain the upper hand. A good tactical battle is on the cards between two men who are used to being all methodical in their approach.

Who Will win this game?

England

Croatia